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Archive - August 2008
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Larry Hughes DUI hearing delayed until 9/17
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Sunday, August 31st, 2008 at 8:45am
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I got curious about the Larry Hughes DUI case
because I haven't seen anything about it from Florida Today lately, so I did some Googling. I didn't find much from
Florida Today, but I did find this
from a newspaper website from down south. Makes sense, since Hughes was arrested in Indian River County.
Anywho, it looks like his next hearing has been delayed once again and is now set for Wednesday, September 17th. The
reason? His blood test supposedly hasn't come back yet. I say "supposedly" because while blood tests can take more time
than people realize sometimes, they aren't supposed to take this long. And during his appearance last month on
Bill Mick Live, Hughes mentioned that his lawyers were expecting
just such a delay because it's not unusual for prosecutors to sit on blood-test results for as long as possible without
releasing them, especially if the prosecutors don't like the results.
When Hughes was arrested
back in June and began proclaiming his innocence, I was very skeptical, especially when his first hearing in July was
delayed at the request of
Hughes's lawyer. But the longer this drags on, the more I think the prosecution is dragging their feet on a weak case.
If September 17th rolls around and they ask for yet another delay, I hope the judge tells the prosecutor to quit
screwing around and either proceed to trial or drop the damn charges already.
Hughes has a bruising campaign coming up to unseat the incumbent Property Appraiser Jim Ford, and Hughes also has a life
to live. He deserves an answer on this, one way or the other.
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National Hurricane Center can't figure out Tropical Storm Hanna
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Friday, August 29th, 2008 at 11:30am
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Tropical
Storm Hanna formed yesterday in the central Atlantic, and she's already giving the National Hurricane Center fits.
The computer models are all pretty close
for the first two or three days, but then they start to split up big time. The NHC is doing their best to sort it out,
and what they've come up with is a five-day
forecast that shows Hanna going west, then getting pushed southwest as she approaches the Bahamas. But they're not
certain of that, and I get very nervous when a tropical storm gets that close to Florida without the NHC having a better
idea of what it's doing. And the further south she gets pushed, the less likely she is to avoid hitting the east coast of
Florida.
It's not time to go shopping quite yet, and if Hanna hits us, it'll probably be a week away, give or take a day. And
it doesn't look like she'll be all that strong, since she's having trouble getting her act together and is going to have
another nasty fight with wind shear in the next few days. But wow, this is not what we need on the heels of Fay. If you're
still cleaning up or fixing up from Fay, get your work done now. Don't wait.
As always, keep reading the excellent tropical weather blog by
Dr. Jeff Masters. I do this for a hobby. He does this
for a living, and it shows.
Oh, and say a prayer for New Orleans... Tropical
Storm Gustav is not lookin' good for them right now.
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Quick analysis of the 8/26 primary results
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Friday, August 29th, 2008 at 11:00am
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There were a few election winners that were real head-scratchers on Tuesday night -- John Tobia? Larry Hughes?
Jim frickin' Ford?!? -- but I was pretty happy with the results overall. There are some nice match-ups coming up for
November's general election, and the voters sent some powerful messages to some candidates who needed to hear them. Only
time will tell if Mitch Needelman, Jackie Colon, Ron Stump, Helen Voltz, Jim Ford and Janice Kershaw were paying attention.
Below are the results for the elections that took place in my precinct, pulled together in one spot with a quickie
analysis from me for each race. The US House, State House and Circuit Judge results came from the
Florida Division of Elections website, with the rest of the results coming from
the Brevard County Supervisor of Elections website. Oh, and I
marked my preferred candidate in each race with an asterisk. *
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| US HOUSE DISTRICT 15 - Republicans |
What a surprise! The establishment guy Posey cruised, while
Bergman took his campaign more seriously than Lehoullier and finished ahead of him. But Posey should watch out for Zilaitis
in November! |
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Bill Posey - * |
45,813 |
77.01% |
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Alan Bergman |
8,516 |
14.32% |
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Kevin Lehoullier |
5,159 |
8.67% |
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| Votes tallied from Brevard, Indian River, Osceola and Polk Counties. |
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| US HOUSE DISTRICT 15 - Democrats |
It's always refreshing to see a Democrat who
doesn't automatically think government health-care is the answer. Blythe will be competitive come November. |
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Stephen Blythe - * |
20,660 |
65.22% |
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Paul Rancatore |
11,019 |
34.78% |
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| Votes tallied from Brevard, Indian River, Osceola and Polk Counties. |
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| STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 31 - Republicans |
The voters punished Stump for his website
stunt, but Steele was still damaged by his past, and the voters were uneasy about Babington. That left the back door open
for Tobia. |
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John Tobia |
3,664 |
32.11% |
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Jason Steele |
3,578 |
31.36% |
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Ron Stump |
2,471 |
21.65% |
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Ken Babington - * |
1,698 |
14.88% |
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| Votes tallied from Brevard County. |
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| CLERK OF THE CIRCUIT COURT - Open |
Ellis gets a solid vote of confidence, but
Needelman is still popular enough to bounce back from this -- if he plays his cards right. |
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Scott Ellis - * |
38,187 |
55.11% |
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Mitch Needelman |
31,108 |
44.89% |
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| SHERIFF - Democrats |
Young is ready to take on his former boss in
November. Should be interesting. |
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Gary E. Young |
15,635 |
63.89% |
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Mose Alexander |
8,836 |
36.11% |
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| PROPERTY APPRAISER - Republicans |
The anti-Ford vote was too divided to take
him down, but at least Voltz got zapped back to reality. But if either Burdett or VanVolkenburgh wasn't in this, the other
one would've won. |
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Jim Ford |
13,107 |
32.47% |
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Robert VanVolkenburgh |
10,060 |
24.92% |
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Steve Burdett - * |
8,714 |
21.59% |
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Helen Voltz |
8,487 |
21.02% |
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| PROPERTY REPORT - Democrats |
What is wrong with you, Democrats? Sitton was
far more qualified and doesn't have a DUI charge hanging over his head. |
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Larry Hughes |
13,332 |
54.20% |
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Charlie Sitton - * |
11,267 |
45.80% |
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| TAX COLLECTOR - Republicans |
Experience won out over money, but this isn't
the last of Colon. She'll run for Congress some day, just watch. |
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Lisa Cullen - * |
22,837 |
57.04% |
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Jackie Colon |
17,198 |
42.96% |
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| TAX COLLECTOR - Democrats |
The Democrats went with the outside candidate
in this race. Should make an interesting contrast with the insider Cullen. |
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Laura Dils |
14,530 |
58.83% |
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Carie Exline - * |
10,167 |
41.17% |
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| SUPERVISOR OF ELECTIONS - Republicans |
I preferred Kump, but Scott was my second
choice. Her insider experience should serve her well. |
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Lori Scott |
11,423 |
29.27% |
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Beth Allen |
9,437 |
24.18% |
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Glenn Willis |
9,123 |
23.38% |
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J.B. Kump - * |
9,044 |
23.17% |
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| COUNTY COMMISSION DISTRICT 3 - Republicans |
Infantini versus Geier in November? Either
way, Brevard County wins. |
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Trudie Infantini - * |
2,572 |
34.81% |
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Pat Woodard |
2,043 |
27.65% |
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Jan Conrad |
1,424 |
19.27% |
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Ronnie McLellan |
1,350 |
18.27% |
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| CIRCUIT JUDGE - 18th Circuit, Group 17 |
The challenger Robert Burger needed help from
Seminole County to take down the incumbent. |
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Robert Burger - * |
47,952 |
51.29% |
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Meryl Allawas |
45,540 |
48.71% |
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| Votes tallied from Brevard and Seminole Counties. |
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| COUNTY JUDGE - Group 3 |
Judge Hotusing has to be scratching his head
over this landslide loss. What gives? |
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Michelle Baker |
41,281 |
61.99% |
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Oscar Hotusing - * |
25,308 |
38.01% |
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| SCHOOL BOARD - District 3 |
Clearly, the voters were on Kneessy's side in
her squabble with Dipatri. |
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Amy Kneessy - * |
9,943 |
73.00% |
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Seeta Begui |
3,678 |
27.00% |
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| PALM BAY REFERENDUM #1 |
Palm Bay stays on even footing with other
cities to draw in new businesses. |
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YES - * |
6,608 |
67.72% |
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NO |
3,150 |
32.28% |
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August 26th primary election round-up
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Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 at 9:30am
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It's primary election day! If you've taken the time
to educate yourself on the candidates and issues, then get out there and vote!
(If you haven't taken the time to educate yourself on the candidates and issues, do us all a favor and stay the
hell away from voting booths. 'Kay, thanks.)
You can click here for sample ballots that you can print off and
take with you. All you have to do is select your party and then your precinct number. If you're not sure what your precinct
number is, it should be on your voter ID card, or you can click here to
find your precinct number. And if you're not sure where to go to vote,
click here for a list of voting locations. There are a handful of
voting locations that have changed due to storm damage from Tropical Storm Fay, so it certainly can't hurt to double-check.
All polls will be open from 7:00am to 7:00pm. If there's a line at your precinct towards the end of the day, just
make sure you get in line before 7:00pm and you'll still be allowed to vote.
Oh, and of course, you can click here for local results, and
you can click here for the US House and State House results.
(EDIT: Corrected the second link, which will now take you to TONIGHT'S results. Useful, eh?)
And finally, here's a quick run-down of who I'll be voting for, as well as who I hope wins the races that I can't vote
in. I've also included links to my write-ups in each race so you can get a refresher on why I chose the person I chose.
US HOUSE DISTRICT 15 - 7/21 write-up - 8/25 write-up
Republican - Bill Posey
Democrat - Steven Blythe
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 31 - write-up
Republican - Ken Babington
(No Democratic primary, closed Republican primary.)
CLERK OF THE CIRCUIT COURT - write-up
Universal Republican Primary - Scott Ellis
PROPERTY APPRAISER - write-up
Republican - Steve Burdett
Democrat - Charlie Sitton
TAX COLLECTOR - write-up
Republican - Lisa Cullen
Democrat - Carie Exline
SUPERVISOR OF ELECTIONS - write-up
Republican - J.B. Kump
(No Democratic primary, only one Democratic candidate.)
COUNTY COMMISSION DISTRICT 3 - write-up
Republican - Trudie Infantini
(No Democratic primary, only one Democratic candidate.)
JUDGE RACES - write-up
Circuit Judge, 18th Circuit, Group 17 - Robert Burger
County Court Judge, Group 3 - Oscar Hotusing
SCHOOL BOARD DISTRICT 3 - write-up
Non-Partisan - Amy Kneessy
CITY OF PALM BAY REFERENDUM - write-up
Referendum #1 - YES
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Judge races and the Palm Bay referendum
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Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 at 1:30am
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Just a last-minute update on a couple of races and items on the 8/26 primary ballot that I just haven't had time to get to
until now. Better late than never, right?
CIRCUIT JUDGE, 18TH CIRCUIT, GROUP 17
The incumbent in this race is Judge Meryl Allawas, and she's being challenged by
local attorney Robert Burger. Burger's website has a link to a
reprimand against Judge Allawas from the
Florida Supreme Court in 2005, citing her for giving overly-delayed rulings in 12 different cases when she was a new
judge. But she hasn't received any further reprimands since then. Burger's website also has a link to a couple of scanned-in
pages from the 2007 and 2008 Brevard County Bar Association Judicial
Polls, showing very low marks for Judge Allawas in 2008 and showing that in 2007 she tied for the third-lowest score
among all of Brevard's judges, a 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 5. I'd greatly prefer to be able to see the entire document
rather than just the pages that Burger cherry-picked, but it certainly looks to me like Judge Allawas is just not getting
the job done. I'll be voting for Robert Burger to replace Meryl Allawas.
COUNTY COURT JUDGE, GROUP 3
The incumbent in this race is Judge Oscar Hotusing, and he's being challenged by
local attorney Michelle Baker. Hotusing has been in the news a lot lately,
as he was the judge who presided over former Representative Bob Allen's solicitation trial, and I liked the way he handled
that case. Plus page 2 of that Brevard County Bar Association Judical
Poll that I linked to above shows Hotusing had a rating of 4.1 on a scale of 0 to 5 in 2007, one of the higher scores.
What I didn't like was
a
spat he got into with Clerk of Court Scott Ellis earlier this year. Florida law states that when a criminal defendant's
bail money is released at the end of their case, the Clerk of Court's office is supposed to check the records and see if
the defendant still owes any money to the court for fines or victim restitution. If they do, that money is taken out of the
bail money, and then whatever is left is returned to whoever posted the bail. For example, let's make up a ficticious man
named Tyler. Tyler gets himself in trouble at a local bar one night, gets arrested, and later makes a plea deal where he
agrees to pay a $250 fine and avoids any jail time. But he never gets around to paying that fine! Fast-forward a few months
later, and Tyler's in trouble again after another rowdy night at the local bar and gets arrested. The judge sets his bail
at $1,000 and Tyler gets his Uncle Joey to pay $1,000 to bail him out. The case goes to trial, the jury acquits him, and
Tyler's a free man, which means Uncle Joey gets his $1,000 back. But first, the Clerk of Court's office checks the records
and sees Tyler still owes that $250 fine from earlier! So they take that $250 out of the bail money, and Uncle Joey only
gets back $750 and learns a valuable lesson about bailing his no-good nephew out of jail.
Whatever you think of that law (and I personally like it, though you may disagree), that's the law right now. And until
it gets repealed, judges have to enforce that law.
Basically, what happened in this debate between Hotusing and Ellis was that Uncle Joey complained to Judge Hotusing
about how unfair this was, so Judge Hotusing ordered Scott Ellis to return the entire bail without holding back any money.
Ellis refused, and Hotusing actually threatened Ellis with a contempt-of-court citation. In the end the dispute ended up
getting
kicked up to a higher court, and I haven't been able to find out if the case was ever resolved.
On the one hand, it looks like Hotusing is re-writing the law, which I don't like to see judges do. On the other hand,
the
law as-written seems to give the judge some leeway on enforcing this.
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939.17 Application of cash deposit to fine and costs.--In any prosecution for an offense against the state or any
political subdivision thereof, when money has been deposited by or on behalf of the defendant upon a judgment for the
payment of a fine and costs, the clerk shall, under the direction of the court, apply the money deposited in
satisfaction of such fine and costs and return the remainder to the depositor.
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Emphasis added by me, and it's those words "under the direction of the court" that make me back down a bit on this one.
Judge Hotusing may have some discretionary power to waive this law in cases where he thinks it's a good idea to do so. I
plan to keep an eye on Judge Hotusing in the future to watch out for any other signs that he prefers to write new laws
instead of enforcing the existing laws. But given his otherwise-good performance on the bench, I will vote to keep
Judge Oscar Hotusing. Michelle Baker may well be qualified for the bench, but I'd rather keep a good judge on the bench
than replace him with someone who may or may not turn out well.
PALM BAY REFERENDUM NO. 1
This referendum asks the following question: "Shall the City of Palm Bay, Florida, be authorized to continue to grant,
pursuant to Section 3, Article VII, of the State Constitution, property tax exemptions to new businesses and expansions of
existing businesses for the purpose of encouraging job creation?"
I'm voting YES, even though I think such tax exemptions are silly. I think every business in a city should pay taxes by
the same set of rules and standards as all the other businesses in that city. Unfortunately, pretty much every city in
the country allows these exemptions, and this vote would only affect Palm Bay while still allowing other cities to keep
offering these exemptions, putting Palm Bay at a disadvantage for being fair. So, I'm begrudingly voting YES to keep
Palm Bay on the same footing as the other cities they're competing with.
BREVARD COUNTY SHERIFF: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
The Republican incumbent in this race has no Republican opponents, so there is no Republican primary. There are two
Democrats who are facing off in a primary, but for some reason they have not made any appearances on Bill Mick Live.
(I don't know if he invited them or not; it's logical to assume that he did and that they both chose not to appear, but I
don't know that for sure.) Plus I'm not a Democrat anyway. So I will not be posting any thoughts on this race, though I'll
certainly take a good look at whoever wins the Democratic primary.
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US House District 15 candidates: follow-up interviews on Bill Mick Live
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Monday, August 25th, 2008 at 5:30pm
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Bill Mick already did a series of individual interviews with the
Congressional candidates to replace Dave Weldon back in July. On August 14th and 15th, he brought everyone back on-the-air
in groups by party to follow up and generate some head-to-head debate. And earlier this morning he held one last interview
and invited everyone to come in at once, which you can hear by heading to
Bill's podcast page.
In some cases they simply rehashed old-ground, so I'll try to focus on whatever new information they revealed about
themselves and their views. If you want to read what I wrote about their initial round of interviews,
click here.
Bill Posey (R)
Bill Posey stated that his main goal is to bring increased accountability to the federal government, and he touted his
record of only missing three days of work in the Florida Senate, voting to cut his own pay twice, and keeping his
office in Tallahassee under budget every month, returning money to the state's coffers. He drew applause from me when he
declared, "We do not have a revenue problem in Washington DC. We have a spending problem." Amen, Mr. Posey! He
also strongly opposed the Kelo vs. New London Supreme Court decision allowing governments to use eminent domain to seize
land from one private owner and transfer it to another under the guise of the public good, and he helped to pass
legislation banning that practice here in Florida. Posey opposes extra taxes on "windfall profits," and doesn't think it's
a good idea to punish people for doing things we want them to do, such as making money and running a company successfully.
Posey also stated that the Real ID Act was overreaching and needs to be "surgically improved," and wants to keep the space
shuttle program going to bridge the gap to the next space program so we don't have to rely on Russia to get ourselves into
space in the short-term.
I was impressed with Bill Posey's initial interview, and I remain impressed with him. I'm still probably going to go
with Frank Zilaitis in November, but I'll certainly be rooting for Bill Posey to win the Republican primary tomorrow, and
I wouldn't mind having him in DC at all.
Alan Bergman (R)
Alan Bergman clearly benefited from not having Bruce Wechsler pit-bulling him from across the table, and sounded much
stronger and much more sure of himself this time. He kept his answers pretty conservative and said he intends to go to
Washington from outside politics to change Congress and bring new blood to the Republican party. He opposes extra taxes on
"windfall profits" and doesn't want to punish people for success, and he would prefer a switch to the
FairTax. Bergman also said he supports the Real ID Act, though he wants to make sure it
doesn't violate the Constitution, and he supports extending the space shuttle program so we don't have to rely on Russia to
reach space.
I liked his energy stance, which is that he wants to get away from using oil at all in the long-term and switch to
cleaner methods such as solar, hydrogen, or maybe nuclear, though I would've preferred more detail on his short-term oil
policy. Does he want to drill more right now for the short-term? He wasn't clear. Bergman also gave a weak answer about
eminent domain. He said people should be compensated at real market value when their land is taken under eminent domain, but
that he doesn't mind eminent domain being used "for the greater good," a vague answer that didn't address the specific
practice of seizing land from one private owner and then turning it over to another private owner for redevelopment. And he
also seemed just a little too comfortable with the use of eminent domain overall, which I believe should only be used when
absolutely neccessary, not just because the government can do something good with that land. Bergman was also vague on the
issue of illegal immigration, but he seemed to say he wants to enforce immigration laws and document everyone coming into
the country.
Overall, Bergman shows a troubling tendency to accept government interference in our lives in too many areas as long as
he thinks it's a good idea, and that tells me he's not quite the principled conservative he tells us he is. I'm still not
sure if he'd be strong enough to stand up to Nancy Pelosi in DC, and I have to stick with rooting for Bill Posey in the
Republican primary.
Kevin Lehoullier (R)
Kevin Lehoullier has completely ignored all three of Bill Mick's invitations to appear on his show, and not once has he
offered an explanation of why. Bill Posey and Alan Bergman did confirm that he has showed up at other campaign events, but
that he seems to prefer the televised events and has only showed up at a few others. Clearly, Kevin is overestimating the
value of TV and underestimating the power of local talk radio. NewsTalk 1240/1350 WMMB is tied for 1st place in the
overall ratings here in Brevard, and Bill Mick's political talk show is the top-rated morning show in the county. Reaching
out to his listeners, many of whom are voters, should've been a higher priority for Lehoullier. As I've said before, if
he doesn't want to talk to us, I can't vote for him.
Steven Blythe (D)
Dr. Blythe came out as much more of a liberal this time around, touting his status as a life-long Democrat and stating that
his focuses will be on creating more jobs, improving health care, and shrinking the growing gap between the rich and poor.
Blythe also bluntly stated that supply-side economics doesn't work. He did propose an interesting idea for government-backed
low-interest home improvement loans which would allow people to strengthen their houses in disaster-prone areas, an idea
that if implemented correctly could save the government a lot of money in future disaster aid. But I'd want to know
more about the cost of the program itself to make sure that it doesn't wipe out the money we'd save on disaster aid, and
I'd be very concerned about fraudulent use of those loans, not to mention the wisdom of making the federal government one
big home-equity lender. I seem to recall lots of trouble recently with government-backed home-equity lenders...
Blythe tried to have it both ways on taxes, stating again he'd be for a flat tax or for the FairTax, but also saying he
wants to increase taxes on short-term capital gains. That means he doesn't really support the FairTax, which would
replace capital gains taxes and all other income taxes. You can't support both ideas because they're contradictory
to each other! Blythe also said he wants to keep the space program going but wants focus on staying in Earth-orbit, and
that he has yet to see a cost-benefit analysis that justifies going to the Moon or Mars. Blythe repeated his support for
stricter penalties for businesses who hire illegal immigrants and for a guest-worker program, but he also stated he would
allow people who are already here illegally but have broken no other laws to enter that guest-worker program -- which
basically means he supports amnesty, even if he doesn't want to call it that.
Steven Blythe is my preferred Democrat in this race, mainly thanks to his strong understanding of health care issues and
his willingness to use free market reforms rather than a top-down government health-care system. But the more I hear from
Dr. Blythe, the less I want to send him to Washington.
Paul Rancatore (D)
I was a little hard on Paul Rancatore last time around, and he's sent me an e-mail challenging my previous attempt to reach
into his head and declare that he loves to look for government solutions to problems. I'm not a mind-reader, so I'll state
right now that I shouldn't have gone that far. But make no mistake about it: someone who wants to expand Medicare to cover
everybody and even pay for abortions, who wants to impose stritcter CAFE standards on motor vehicles, who wants to allow
illegal immigrants to enter a guest-worker program for a path to citizenship, and who supports raising the minimum wage to
a "living wage"... I'm sorry Paul, but those all sound like liberal ideas to me, and we clearly disagree on those issues.
But I'll stop there and leave the mind-reading to psychics.
I do like some of Rancatore's other stances, though. He wants to focus on mitigating the upcoming blow to the local
economy that will come with the end of the space shuttle, and hopes to expand commercial space flight at Kennedy Space
Center to help fill the economic gap. He's taken a deeper look at the FairTax and has now come out in support of it. He
supports using oil shale right now for our short-term energy needs and developing space-based solar power for our long-term
energy needs. In the meantime he wants to reduce the number of different fuel oil formulations from 17 down to 1 to cut
down the price, and wants to abolish the use of corn-based ethanol.
Paul Rancatore actually switched from Republican to Democrat in 2006, which may explain why he's so sensitive about
being called a liberal. He has some good ideas, but also some bad ones, and I just can't put my support behind his
candidacy.
Frank Zilaitis (I)
Frank Zilaitis is going to push HARD for the FairTax, and I'm gonna love
every second of it. He weaved the FairTax into as many different answers as he could, and touted the fact that he is the
only candidate in the race who is active in the FairTax organization. He also echoed Bill Posey from the previous day when
he said, "There's no revenue problem, there's a spending problem in Congress." He stated plans to introduce a
balanced-budget Constitutional amendement in Congress, which left all the other candidates scrambling to say they'd
support it too. Zilaitis also dove head-first into the abortion issue, describing himself as "pro-life" but saying the
abortion question should be a state issue, not a federal issue. He wants to have Congress vote to remove the Supreme
Court's jurisdiction over the abortion issue, which Congress is Constitutionally empowered to do.
On the topic of jobs creation, Zilaitis says his role in Congress will be to cheerlead for Brevard County to bring in
business and then to get out of the way of local businesses rather than trying to tweak the local economy from DC with an
"1800-mile screwdriver." He also brought up that the FairTax would create more jobs by boosting the economy -- which by
extension means more jobs here in Brevard as well. On the topic of illegal immigration, Zilaitis stated that a guest-worker
program would be a band-aid on the problem of illegal immigration and wants a top-to-bottom reform of the entire
immigration system. Amen to that, Frank!
Zilaitis also said we have to accept the reality that the shuttle program is done and that we need
to move on to the next program, as well as increasing commercial space flight at KSC. He was blunt in his criticism of
Space Florida, saying they dropped the ball locally on properly managing the space program to avoid the coming economic hit
from the end of the shuttle program, and he singled out Bill Posey as a member of Space Florida who bears some
responsibility for this. While discussing our space program's reliance on Russia, he got beaten up a little by the callers
for referring to Russia and China as peace-loving countries, and later had to clarify that he was talking about not using
the International Space Station to work out our political or military differences with Russia or China.
As an independent candidate, Zilaitis plans to caucus with the Republican party as an independent, much like Joe Lieberman
caucuses with the Democratic party as an independent. As such, I'm really not worried about his lack of party affiliation
in DC. Zilaitis is strong on the issues, knowledgeable, and consistent, and he will be able to get things done. That's why
I'm almost certain at this point that I'll be voting for Frank Zilaitis come November.
Trevor Lowing (I)
Trevor Lowing skipped out on the second and third interview opportunities with Bill Mick, though he did show up for the
first interview back in July. I do find it interesting that the only time he came in was when it was just going to be
Lowing in the studio and nobody else, but he did not show up for the times when other candidates would be in the studio as
well. Is Lowing afraid of having to defend himself in a real-time debate? That's what it looks like. And Lowing needs to
keep in mind that, as an Independent candidate, the deck is stacked against him from the get-go. He'll have precious few
opportunities to get his message out there to large groups of people, so turning away two such golden opportunities is not
smart. I wasn't a big fan of Trevor Lowing before, but he lost even more points with me by skipping these two interviews,
and I'm more certain than ever that he won't get my vote come November.
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County Commission District 3 candidates: as heard on Bill Mick Live
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Monday, August 25th, 2008 at 10:00am
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The primary election is tomorrow, August 26th, so
I'm trying to wrap up my series of write-ups on the candidate interviews that have been airing on
Bill Mick Live. Next up is County Commission District 3. There's
only one Democrat, Ed Geier, so there will be no Democratic primary and Geier will go straight to the ballot in November.
So that leaves the Republican Party primary, where there are 4 candidates. Let's take a look, shall we?
Trudie Infantini (R)
Trudie Infantini currently serves as a county auditor in the Clerk of Court office under Scott Ellis, and also brings in
private-sector auditing experience. So given her background, it's no surprise that Infantini wants to attack wasteful
county spending. She wants the County Commission to focus more on setting priorities when drafting budgets, saying that we
can't spend tax money on wants until we've taken care of our needs first. Infantini was quite critical of the Environmentally
Endangered Lands program (EELS) and says the County has consistenly overpaid for new parcels of land under EELS, which has
left the EELS fund far short of having enough money to properly maintain and manage the land that's been purchased.
Infantini would also bring more oversight to county projects, and she singled out Parks & Recreation as a department with a
poor record of staying on budget. And finally, she opposes both the seperate fire fee assessment and the RV parking bill,
saying that she supports the rights of property owners to do what they want with their own land.
Trudie Infantini knows this county, she knows this government, and she has an excellent plan for getting the County's
spending under control. She is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, and I will be thrilled if she wins the
primary and look forward to voting for her in November.
C.R. "Ronnie" McLellan (R)
Ronnie McLellan wants to bring "good ol' country-boy common sense" to the County Commission. He's been on the County's
Planning & Zoning Board since 1992, so he has 16 years of experience working with the nuts-and-bolts of county government
on top of 30 years of business experience here in Brevard. He has called for the County to cut back on spending and to cut
back on regulations that interfere with people's lives and businesses. On the topic of EELS, McLellan doesn't really mind
the program itself but thinks it's money that can be better spent on other things right now, and he thinks the
recent EELS deal in Scottsmoor
stinks. McLellan also opposes both the seperate fire fee assessment and the RV parking bill.
McLellan also stated that he wants more flexibility to transfer budget money from departments with surpluses to
department with shortages, but unfortunately some of his comments on this topic showed a lack of knowledge about the
budgeting process. There are times when money is collected by the county through referendums or through state and federal
grants that can only be spent on one certain thing and nothing else. If one of those projects ends up with a surplus of
cash, unfortunately there's no way for that money to be re-allocated to something else. I do like that McLellan doesn't
want to take "no" for an answer on this issue, because it shows he'll bring a can-do attitude to the job. But in the end
he'll have to take "no" as an answer on this issue anyway, regardless of whether he wants to or not.
McLellan's philsophy, experience and attitude will serve him well if he gets to the County Commission, but the weakness
of his knowledge of the budget process holds him back from being my top candidate in this race. But if McLellan wins the
primary, he's certainly someone I could get behind, and I have a feeling he'd have no trouble filling in whatever gaps
exist in his knowledge once he gets into the job.
Jan Conrad (R)
Jan Conrad has extensive private-sector management experience and didn't enter the political arena until 2004, when she
became a legislative aide to the County Commission for District 3... which, alas, means she's spent the past four years
working for Helen Voltz. And as you already know, I'm no fan of Helen Voltz. I'd be willing to overlook
that, except that while Jan Conrad talked a good conservative game and pretty much agreed with Trudie Infantini, there was
always a certain hard-to-define "slickness" about her answers. Helen Voltz has always talked a good conservative game as
well, but her voting record on the County Commission says something different. With Helen Voltz moving on and Jan Conrad
running to replace her, this hits me too much as a passing-of-the-torch from Voltz to Conrad, and any torch from Voltz
is one that needs to be extinguished. And it sure didn't help that when Bill Mick asked Jan Conrad point-blank about the
recent Scottsmoor EELS land deal, she politely declined to comment on that directly.
I'm not totally closing the door on Jan Conrad. If she somehow wins this primary, I want to give her a closer look and
try to find out more about the connections between Conrad and Voltz, and I could still see myself voting for her over Ed
Geier. But in this primary, I would greatly prefer Trudie Infantini, and I'm hesitant to roll the dice on Conrad.
Pat Woodard (R)
Pat Woodard currently serves as a Palm Bay City Council member and has been one since 1999, so he has a solid record of local
legislative experience. Unfortunately, many of his answers were rather vague. It's pretty clear that he's a conservative,
so I have no worries on that front, but he didn't bring much fire or personality into the interview with Bill Mick. And I
know it sounds shallow of me to bring that up, but the County Commission has hosted some rather strong-willed people over
the years, and I want to make sure that the person who represents me in those meetings will be able to stand up for me.
Trudie Infantini has a message and philosophy similar to Woodard's and the personal strength to back it up, so I'd rather
have her. That said, if Woodard wins, I'll give him a chance to win me over for the general election.
Ed Geier (D)
I'm quite happy to see Ed Geier in this race, the current Deputy Mayor of Palm Bay and a long-time member of the Palm Bay
City Council, as well as the former mayor himself. He's provided steady leadership for my city over the years and has
served us well. And I'm sure right about now some of you are screaming at the monitor and wondering if I've noticed the
"D" next to his name. Yes, I have, but Geier is a complicated guy who really doesn't fit the mold of any political party
right now. That's probably why he's switched parties so many times. He started out decades ago as a Democrat, then switched
to Republican when his friend Mitch Needelman entered politics so he could more easily support him. Geier later switched to
Independent, and actually considered running for this County Commission race as an Independent before deciding that would
kill his chances of winning. So he had to pick one, and at that point I think he made a practical calculation and chose to
run as a Democrat in a wide-open field with no primary election to win.
During his interview with Bill Mick, I called in ("Vince from Palm Bay," of course) and tried to nail Geier down as
either a conservative or a liberal. He went for "moderate," and along those lines he was very difficult to pin down on
the questions Bill and the callers asked him. That did not go unnoticed by me. Geier has time before the November election,
but sooner or later he's going to have to set aside the gauzy rhetoric about representing the people of the district and
start taking actual stands on issues. If my choice in November is between a strong conservative like Infantini or McLellan
versus a self-described moderate who bobs and weaves when I ask him point-blank questions, the choice will be easy for me:
the strong conservative. That won't change my opinion of Geier as a good man and as someone who I like and respect, but it
won't earn him my vote.
Talk to us, Ed. We'll listen.
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Monday, August 25th, 2008 at 8:30am
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One of the perils of the Internet age is that
once you post something on a public website, that's it. It CANNOT ever truly be taken down or deleted!!!
There's always going to be some joker somewhere out there who took a screenshot of the original page, and if you're dumb
enough to change your site and deny that you changed it, he'll be glad to post that screenshot. Those who try sneaky-edits
very rarely get away with it, and it usually blows up into something far bigger. So don't try it. If you posted something
dumb on your website and later wish you hadn't, just leave it up and then post an update admitting that you said
something dumb and wish you hadn't. If you DO feel the need to delete it, post an update admitting that
you've deleted something and explain why.
I mention all of this because of a dust-up between Mitch Needelman and Scott Ellis in the Clerk of Court race, one that
I initially ignored in my initial post on the Clerk of Court race, but which blew up a bit over the
weekend. Mitch Needelman's campaign website includes a series of interview questions from a reporter with the
Hometown News, that free newspaper
you get in your driveway now and then that you probably throw away. (By the way, don't. There's good reading in there, and
it's nice to have an alternative to Florida Today.) Scott Ellis's supporters have been claiming online that Needelman's
answer to question b.) initially included the parenthetical phrase, "the current Clerk has unsuccessful (sic) sued the
County a number of times in the last eight years." When Ellis's supporters challenged the accuracy of that statement, the
sentence in question suddenly and mysteriously disappeared from Needelman's website. If you check Needelman's site now,
you'll see that sentence is missing from the answer to question b.).
Then it got weird. One of Needelman's staffers responded to Ellis's supporters by threatening to start filing libel
lawsuits and claimed the sentence in question had never been on the website at all! It came to a head during the joint
two-hour interview Ellis and Needelman had on Bill Mick Live on Friday 8/22. Ellis accused Needelman of doctoring the
interview, changing the website and lying about it, and Needelman denied that any such change to the website had ever taken
place. (As of today, that interview is still up on Bill's
podcast site if you want to
hear it for yourself, but it won't stay up for much longer.)
The argument hit me as the sort of bickering best reserved for web-forum flame wars, so I ignored it and focused on
weightier matters. But then the Hometown News weighed in on Friday afternoon, posting
their copies of the e-mails exchanged between Mitch Needelman
and their reporter. And there it is, the sentence in question, right there in the answer to question b.). Ellis's
supporters were right. Needelman's website initially included that sentence, but it was later deleted.
My take? I think it's still a silly web-forum flame war that just happened to get some lighter fluid squirted on it.
Some staffer on Needelman's website probably got nervous about that sentence and deleted it without telling anyone, and
then denied deleting it when Ellis's supporters pointed it out. Add in an overzealous lawsuit-happy higher-level staffer in
a heated race, and there you go. I don't believe for one second that Mitch Needelman personally had anything to do with
this silliness, and given the choice between believing his own staffer or believing the accusations of his opponent's
supporters, he chose his own staffer and understandably so. It changes nothing for me, especially since I'll be voting for
Ellis over Needelman in this race anyway.
But the moral of the story? Don't try sneaky-edits on campaign websites. If you say something dumb, own up to it and
move on. Or better yet: be more careful about what you post online in the first place. And of course, never
underestimate the power of people with way too much free time on their hands. That's the best advice of all.
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Monday, August 25th, 2008 at 7:45am
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My fiance has a real name, of course, but in the
interests of preserving her privacy, I refer to her on my own site by the name she has chosen to go by on her own blog.
Cake Buzzard.
(Geez, I love her.)
Anywho, she updated her blog early Sunday morning with this
little gem, and I wanted to share it here.
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Tropical Storm Fay affected us this week. There was a ton of rain and many of the streets around here were impassable
due to high waters. Luckily my home did fine, we only had standing water in our little "yard" area during the worst of the
rain. Approximately two inches. The center driveways of the parking area in our complex got pretty full, most of the water
was drained into the storm drains. By Tuesday afternoon the road leading to the complex was under water. It has rained at
least some everyday here since Tuesday if not Monday night.
I write all this to say that right now the sprinklers in the complex are running and will run for at least the next
half hour. This is why a rain gauge sensor on your sprinkler system is a good idea.
I have no say in the matter. Such is the life of a renter.
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(Seriously, running the sprinklers just a day or two after the worst flooding event in local history? That's all kinds
of dumb.)
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State House District 31 candidates: as heard on Bill Mick Live
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Sunday, August 24th, 2008 at 1:00pm
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The Republicans literally hold all the cards in the race to fill Mitch Needelman's District 31 seat in the State House.
There are no Democratic candidates and no minor-party candidates. But the presense of a single write-in
candidate means the Republican primary on August 26th will stay closed, with the winner facing that write-in candidate for
a probable landslide victory in November. Being a Libertarian, that means I'm frozen out, but I still care who wins. That's
why I still grabbed the podcast
of their two-hour August 5th interview on Bill Mick Live and did
some extra research on my own. Here's my take on this race.
Ken Babington (R)
Ken Babington is a well-known politically-active preacher with a church in Cocoa Beach, though this is his first run for
political office. Babington called himself "the one, solid, consistent conservative" in the race and was very outspoken
during the interview with Bill Mick. When a caller asked the candidates how they would convince him they would really
follow through on their campaign promises, Babington responded that he speaks boldly and bluntly so it will be easier later
to see if he's not keeping his promises since he won't have any room for wiggling or weaseling.
Babington checked off every box on the conservative checklist. He says the 1986 immigration-amnesty bill was the right
thing to do but is angry that it's not being enforced, so he opposes a second amnesty. He wants Florida to step up and
enforce the immigration laws that the federal government refuses to enforce, including penalizing employers for hiring
illegals. He wants to end our obscene dependence on foreign oil by drilling here and drilling now, including offshore in
Florida. However, I would've liked him to include nuclear, wind and solar power in his energy plans for the long-term as
well, all of which he failed to mention. Babington supports school vouchers and opposes affirmative action. When asked on
several occasions about reforming Florida's arcane property tax system or replacing it with a higher sales tax, he
repeatedly swatted those proposals aside and stressed that the bigger problem is the state government's tendency to spend
too much, and that reigning in wasteful spending will help the state far more than any tax reform proposal ever would. I
disagree and think we need to reform the tax system and slash wasteful spending, but it's nice to see someone so
passionate about curbing government waste.
Since he's a conservative fundamentalist preacher, it was no surprise to see that Babington supports the proposed state
Constitutional amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman, but he lost points with me by opposing civil
unions as well. No matter your moral views on homosexuality, pretending that they don't exist or that they aren't creating
unofficial families of their own is pure folly. There are all sorts of legal protections and shared rights that come into
play automatically when a man and a woman get married. It's possible to use lengthy legal contracts drawn up by a lawyer
to duplicate this between a homosexual couple, but it's more expensive and more time consuming, so many such couples don't
bother... which leads to bigger legal headaches for the state to deal with later over matters such as child custody,
financial support, and medical decision-making. Allowing civil unions is a simple matter of practicality and heads-off
these potential problems. Both sides of this debate get so hung up on the details. Civil unions are the way to go and are
a logical compromise between the hard-liners on both sides.
That last point highlights the biggest thing that makes me nervous about Ken Babington: his fiery religious convictions.
Babington says he'll fight hard for conservative political and moral values, but I'm worried about him trying to take his
Biblical beliefs and turn them into law. But when I look at the remaining three Republicans, I find myself with no
real choice but to root for Ken Babington and to pray -- literally -- that he doesn't go totally overboard in Tallahassee.
But I have to ask: are these the best candidates the Republicans could come up with? Yikes.
Ron Stump (R)
Ron Stump has worked for the State Attorney's office and has served in the Army in Afghanistan. He pretty much agrees with
Ken Babington down the line, though Stump has more alternative energy sources in his energy plan and also wants a
guest-worker program. He's qualified for the State House in every way... except for integrity.
Ron Stump's experience and views are grossly overshadowed by the sneaky website he set up in his opponent's name,
http://www.jasonsteele.com. Incredibly, when Bill Mick asked about that website
during the interview, Stump actually defended the site, which features copies of the paperwork for all of Jason Steele's
financial and legal troubles over the years but which doesn't provide any easy-to-read context to give the whole story. For
example, the site shows 11 different IRS tax lien filings dating from 1986 to 1999, which makes it look like Jason Steele
has been a habitual tax deadbeat for over a decade. In reality, Steele got in trouble for not paying his taxes exactly once:
in 1986. (See below for details on what happened there.) Since then, Steele's been making regular payments on that debt
while filing and paying his yearly taxes on-time every year since. So why the multiple liens? Because standard practice for
the IRS is to take each year's tax payment, apply it to the original debt instead, and then file a new lien for that year's
tax bill.
But most people don't know that's how the IRS works -- and that's what Ron Stump was counting on when he posted all 11
tax liens on the website with no further explanation. He's hoping you'll look at that and think Jason Steele skipped out
on his taxes 11 times when in fact it was only once -- which is bad enough, but one time is still a far cry from 11 times.
(Thanks to Matt Reed for digging this up in his
May 25th article for Florida Today, which alas is in the for-pay archives.) Stump also padded the site by including
documents from two lawsuits against Steele that were found to be unfounded and were thrown out of court, and of course he
snuck them in down at the bottom, hoping you would just see two more legal documents and skim past them without realizing
they were actually dismissed. Holding a dismissed lawsuit against a defendant doesn't make any sense, and it isn't fair.
In the interview, Bill Mick went after Ron Stump hard on this. Stump's response? "It wasn't deceptive or dirty,
and I don't think it was stupid. All the records come from the Clerk of Courts." Sorry, Ron, that's weak. Those records only
tell part of the story, and posting them up on a website named after your opponent to confuse visitors is dirty, especially
when your own name only appears once on the website in small print at the very bottom. The honorable way to handle this
would've been to write up a quick narrative of the complete story of Jason Steele's financial and legal troubles,
imbed some text links to the relevant supporting documents, and then own it by posting it up on your own campaign web
site. Hell, Ron, I'll do it right here myself on my own page just to show you how it should be done. The complete story is
relevant and makes Jason Steele look plenty bad enough anyway. It did not need to be distorted or embellished, and the
fact that you felt the need to do so anyway just makes you look petty, Ron. And your stubborn insistence that this stunt was
perfectly acceptable makes me wonder what other such stunts you'll pull in the future to the embarrassment of your party and
your constituents if you do manage to get elected. And that's why I can't support you in this race.
FAIL.
Jason Steele (R)
Jason Steele works in real estate and has actualy served one term in the state House before, way back in the 1980s. Much
like Babington and Stump, Steele is a solid conservative down the line. I was a bit puzzled by how he explained his tax
reform proposal on the air with Bill Mick, however: to scrap the current system and replace it with an ad-valorem property
tax for county funding and a sales tax for state funding. Uh, Jason? That's what we already have. I think he really does
have a different system in mind and just explained it poorly, but his
website really doesn't illuminate things much more
either.
Even more troublesome is Jason Steele's checkered legal and financial past. (Hey, Ron Stump, are you paying attention?
This is how you should've gone after Steele on this issue. Take notes.) It all starts in the '80s, when Steele and
three other real estate dealers hooked up to buy a plot of land near where Viera is now. While getting ready to develop
the land, Steele changed his mind and wanted out, so the other partners bought out his share with a $300,000 promissory
note. That's right, not cash -- simply a promise to pay him the cash later. And what did Steele do with that promissory
note? Why, he turned around and used it secure $200,000 in loans, and then used those loans to buy up some beachfront
property to put up condos.
Then the bottom fell out in the real estate market. Steele couldn't get the condo plans to go through. He needed money
to pay back the loan, but he didn't have it, so the bank sued him. Steele turned to his former partners and cashed in on
the promissory note to pay off the loan. But then the IRS came along and classified that $300,000 as income and sent
Steele a bill for the taxes. He couldn't pay it. The IRS hit him with penalties, then with interest, then with
a tax lien. It didn't take long for that tax bill to balloon up
big time. And Steele had two choices: declare bankruptcy and start over, or go into a payment plan with the IRS. He chose
option #2, and is still making payments to this day. And thanks to the peculiar accounting practices of the IRS, they
kept hitting him with new tax liens every year over the same debt. But to this day, rather than owning up to his own poor
financial choices, Steele continues to blame the IRS
and government agencies for his troubles while saying that this all happened through no fault of his own, as he said
to Bill Mick in the interview.
In the years since then, Steele has been sued
several more times by varying parties, though two of those lawsuits were dismissed. Steele also once
sued someone else over a car accident and lost, leaving him
liable for the other driver's legal fees.
So, basically Steele borrowed against money he didn't actually have yet, sunk almost all of his resources into a bad
land deal, didn't properly research the tax ramifications of his financial moves, and has been sued multiple times... and
he thinks he's qualified to be in the State House and cast votes on how to spend other people's money?
I don't think so.
Oh, and the fact that Jason Steele has been appointed to positions of authority by several governors convinces me of
nothing, except that I must have higher standards for filling such positions than Governors Martinez, Chiles or Bush had.
(Now, see Ron? I told the whole story, I didn't distort anything, I included links, I put it up on my own website under
my own name, and I was still able to blast Jason Steele with both barrels. And I'm not even running for office! If I
could figure out how to do this, why couldn't you?)
John Tobia (R)
John Tobia is a young professor at Valencia Community College with conservative views that don't differ all that much from
Babington, Stump or Steele. But he was very cautious on the topic of reforming Florida property tax system and wants to
avoid scrapping it entirely. His prefence is for incremental changes -- precisely the approach that got us the hodge-podge
of a system we have today, in which two neighbors with identical houses can have vastly different property tax bills based
solely on who moved-in to their house first. He also responded to a question about how to crack down on home contractor
fraud by basically saying that the solution was to just not give contractor's licenses to bad contractors, a uselessly
vague solution since most of the scammers aren't even licensed to begin with anyway. And Tobia conducted himself throughout
the entire interview with Bill Mick with such an astoundingly meek attitude that I find it hard to believe he would be
able to assert himself in Tallahassee. He needs to come off much stronger and with more confidence before he enters the
legislative arena, and he's just not ready for the job right now.
So, if I were a Republican, those would be my choices: a rabidly fundamentalist preacher, a dirty political trickster,
a heavy tax debtor with a history of absurdly risky financial moves, and a meek political newcomer. I'll go with Ken
Babington, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
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Clerk of the Circuit Court candidates: as heard on Bill Mick Live
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Saturday, August 23rd, 2008 at 4:30pm
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Perhaps the biggest race that will be decided on August 26th is the "universal primary" between incumbent Scott Ellis
and challenger Mitch Needelman for the Clerk of the Circuit Court of Brevard County. Both candidates are Republicans,
but because there are no candidates from any other parties and no independent candidates, the Republican primary has
been opened up as a universal primary. That means anyone, regardless of party affiliation, can vote in this
race -- winner take all.
I've never met Scott Ellis, but I've had the pleasure of meeting Mitch Needelman before, though I'm sure it was
thousands of handshakes ago for him and I'd be amazed if he truly remembered me. I have immense respect for both of them,
and for what they've done to fight for the citizens of Brevard County. Whoever wins this election will do well.
That's why I've been so frustrated with the tone this race has taken. Things have gotten ugly. Very ugly. Mitch
Needelman and his supporters have made strong claims about Scott Ellis's job performance and his choice of priorities, and
Scott Ellis and his supporters have fired back with claims that Mitch Needelman has distorted Ellis's record and the facts.
And what was supposed to be a high-class all-star race between two excellent candidates has degenerated into a crass
mud-slinging contest, permanently sullying my opinion of both Ellis and Needelman.
But... one of them has to win.
Scott Ellis (R)
Scott Ellis is the current Clerk and has held the office since 2000. When he took over, the county court system was in a
state of near chaos thanks to the mismanagement of the previous Clerk. The computers weren't working, and court records
and payments were piling up, unable to be processed or filed. Ellis brought his computer engineering expertise to bear on
the problem, and through his hard work and the hard work of his staff, the backlog was cleared and the records were brought
up to date. Meanwhile, Ellis began using the auditing powers of the Clerk's office to expose wasteful spending by the
County Commissioners, and he's kept it up ever since.
Along the way, Ellis has made enemies. Sometimes it's been because of the waste and abuse he's exposed. And sometimes
it's been because of his caustic attitude. Ellis does not suffer fools easily, and when he takes aim on you, he hits hard.
He gets nasty. He gets personal. And boy, has
that side of him
come out in this race, both online and on the radio.
Mitch Needelman (R)
Mitch Needelman has served as one of Brevard's representatives in the Florida House of Representatives since 2000. He's
been a beloved figure in Brevard politics and has consistently fought for conservative values, voting to keep taxes low
and the budget under control. His bona fides are established, but now his time in Tallahassee is ending due to term limits.
Needelman says he's observed serious problems with the way Scott Ellis runs the Clerk's office, and that it's time for him
to be replaced.
I've stayed out of the online fighting between the two campaigns, but I made sure to catch their interviews on
Bill Mick Live. Needelman went first on August 7th, followed by
Scott Ellis on August 8th, and then both candidates together for two hours yesterday. Needelman's criticisms of Ellis
have pretty much dominated the debate, so those criticisms are what I'll focus on.
Needelman's main avenue of attack has been the money that the Clerk's office receives from the state government every
year under a program meant to assist smaller and more rural counties with the operating costs of their clerk's offices.
Needelman went so far as to refer to it as "being on welfare," and stated that Ellis's office most recently received
nearly $3 million to cover to cover a budget shortfall for fiscal year 2006-2007. Interestingly enough, Ellis didn't deny
receiving that money, but went on to say that his office returned $2 million back to the state at the end of the fiscal
year, an amount Needelman never disputed either. Ellis also stated that the shortfall is primarily because Brevard has
three different courthouses when most similarly-sized counties have only one. Ellis has long advocated consolidating all
criminal proceedings into one courthouse and using the other two for civil and family court to save money, and stated that
the County Commission agrees with him but the county judges refuse to go along with it.
On the one hand Needelman was, strictly-speaking, telling the truth... but not the whole truth. The shortfall was only
$1 million, but Needelman tried to make it sound like it was three times as much. I do not like that sort of deception.
On the other hand, Ellis seems far too proud of returning that $2 million. That still leaves $1 million in state money that
Ellis needed to keep the Clerk's office open and operating. He raises a good point about Brevard having multiple
courthouses and the role that plays in the higher expenses of the Brevard Clerk's office, but what I didn't hear from
Ellis is an alternative plan to get away from relying on state money besides consolidating the criminal courts into one
courthouse. That's Plan A, but since the judges don't want to go along with Plan A, a Plan B would make me feel a lot
better.
Needelman disagreed with Ellis's multiple-courthouse explanation for the budget shortfall and offered his own explanation:
that Ellis has been coming up short of the state's 90% collection-rate standard for traffic fines. Traffic fines are a
major source of funding for the Clerk's office, so collecting those fines is quite important for balancing the budget. So,
just how much has Ellis been short by? Needelman said Ellis is only hitting a 70% collection-rate. Ellis said it's actually
89%. And as they quibbled over the numbers, they eventually revealed that they were arguing over projected numbers for
later this year: numbers that haven't even been finalized yet. That's just plain silly, and they both ought to know better.
Ellis's reaction to Needelman's criticism was interesting. The state standard is 90%. Needelman says Brevard is at 70%.
Ellis got mad at that and countered with 89%. Uh, Scott? That's still 1% short, and I noticed you didn't dispute it when
Mitch said that other counties are usually around 95%. However, Ellis had another counter, and Needelman's response was
equally interesting. Along with traffic fines, County Clerks also collect criminal fines. The state standard collection-rate
on criminal fines is only 40% since criminal fines are harder to collect than traffic fines. Ellis stated that Brevard is
well above that standard for crminal fines. Needelman's response? He didn't dispute that, but instead tried to downplay it
as insignificant. Again, Ellis acts overly proud of a record that could use improvement, and again Needelman shows a
penchant for cherry-picking numbers that make Ellis look worse and ignoring numbers that make Ellis look better.
Needelman's third line of attack was to criticize Ellis for spending too much time, attention and resources on the
auditing apects of his job and not enough on the task of making sure the record-keeping for the courts runs smoothly. The
jabs between Needelman and Ellis flew fast and furious on this topic, but rather than go through the blow-by-blow, I'll
just say this. Florida Today is no fan of Scott Ellis. If Ellis was so frequently falling behind on the record-keeping for
the courts, wouldn't there be monthly stories about it in the newspaper? Seems to me the record-keeping is going just fine,
and in the meantime Ellis's audit work is saving us all money.
Undermining Mitch Needelman's credibility even further was his sloppy attack on Scott Ellis over the infamous Sarno
Landfill deal in 1999, where the county vastly overpaid for a plot of surplus land near the landfill to help a political
crony turn a nice profit. During his solo interview with Bill Mick, Needelman accused Scott Ellis of signing the county
check that paid for the land and of not recognizing the scam, failing in his duties as Clerk of Court. There was just one
problem: Ellis didn't become the Clerk until 2000.
Needelman quickly
apologized after being called out on it, but it showed a definite lack of attention on his part.
In my mind, I went into this debate with the opinion that Scott Ellis has done a fine job running the Clerk of Court
office, which put the burden of proof on Mitch Needelman to show why Scott should be replaced. Mitch did bring up some
good critiques and areas where Scott could improve, and I still remain troubled by Scott's often fiery and insulting
reactions to criticism. But Mitch did not meet his burden of proof. I believe Mitch Needelman would do a good job as the
Clerk of Court, but I see no reason to replace someone who is already doing a good job. On August 26th, I'll be voting for
Scott Ellis.
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Supervisor of Elections candidates: as heard on Bill Mick Live
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Saturday, August 23rd, 2008 at 8:45am
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Next up: the primary candidates for the office of Supervisor of Elections to replace the retiring Fred Galey, who has
done a bang-up job at keeping Brevard County out of the headlines in 2000 and 2004 with glitch-free elections. The
Democrats have only one candidate in this race and won't get a primary, while four Republicans will square off in the
primary for their party's nomination. Three of the four Republicans and an independent candidate chose to appear
on Bill Mick Live on NewsTalk 1240/1350 WMMB, and of course I saved
the podcasts of those
interviews and have listened to them on several occasions. Here's what I thought of their on-air appearances.
Of the three Republicans who appeared on Bill Mick Live, nobody really stood out head-and-shoulders above the rest of the
candidates. J.B. Kump, Lori Scott and Beth Allen all stressed the importance of continuing the excellent job Fred Galey
has done and their desire to increase voter outreach, especially in schools. Nobody hit a home run, and nobody struck out.
Nobody has any significant experience working in the Elections office. They all pretty much agreed on the issues. Even
Beth Allen, who I was expecting to sound like a weak also-ran, presented herself well. So, that forced me look into the
websites and experience of Kump, Scott and Allen to come up with my preferred choice in this race. And my choice is
J.B. Kump.
J.B. Kump (R)
J.B. Kump's resume is strong and impressive. He served in the US Air Force as an officer for 20 years, retiring as a
Lt. Colenol. He is currently an executive director for the Hubbs-Sea World Research Institute, and prior to that he worked
with Rep. Dave Weldon for eight years as his district director and campaign manager. That is a lifetime of executive and
leadership experience, which leaves me no doubt that he would be effective at running the Elections office.
Kump's opponent Lori Scott has a similarly strong resume and similar positions, however, so for me the tie-breaker was
Fred Galey's decision to endorse Kump in this race. Galey's time in the Elections office went very well, so when he points
to a candidate and says "That's the one," that's important to me.
The one thing that gives me pause is Kump's close ties to Weldon, who I am not a fan of at all. Weldon allowed himself
to be completely consumed by the Washington political machine, and I'll be watching for signs of that in Kump as well. But
it's not enough to shake my belief that Kump is the most qualified of all the Republican candidates to run the Elections
office in Brevard.
Lori Scott (R)
Coming in a close second is Lori Scott. Scott has spent the past 16 years serving on the staffs of a long list of State
Representatives and State Senators including nine years as the Chief of Staff for Mike Haridopolos, plus stints with
Bill Posey and -- gulp -- Patsy Kurth. Kind of odd to see a Republican who once worked for such a disliked Democrat as
Kurth, but it was close to a decade ago. Lori Scott is a grizzled behind-the-scenes political veteran and knows the
election process well, and I think this experience would serve her well as the Supervisor of Elections.
Unfortunately, that strength is also her weakness. Scott has scant experience working in the private sector, with the
vast majority of her career in political positions assisting legislators. That will make it a challenge for her to harness
the sort of business-minded approach that can improve the efficiency of any large government bureaucracy. She's also a
long-term confirmed political animal, which could raise suspicions if any problems ever do pop up in any Brevard elections.
That's a big "if," but one that can't be entirely ignored.
I still think Lori Scott would make an excellent Supervisor of Elections, and I won't mind at all if she wins the
Republican primary. But my concern about Scott's insider status combined with Galey's endorsement of Kump makes me lean
more in Kump's favor.
Beth Allen (R)
Next there's Beth Allen, the wife of disgraced former senator Bob Allen. I wasn't expecting much
from Beth Allen, so it was a pleasant surprise to hear her hold her own on-the-air alongside Kump and Scott. Allen
showed a solid understanding of the duties of the office, the potential problems to avoid, and the approach to aim for in
continuing Fred Galey's work, and she showed she belongs in this race. She made me take her seriously.
That said... Allen's resume is diverse and well-rounded, and she stayed as plugged-in and involved in her husband's long
political career as she could. But while Kump has been an Air Force officer and a Congressional campaign manager and Scott
has been a Chief of Staff for a State Senator, Allen has limited experience with leadership roles in her life. That's a
problem. Supervisor of Elections is an important administrative position with a great deal of responsibility, and it
requires a strong and sure leader. Kump and Scott have both proven they're up to the task. There's a good chance that Allen
is as well, but it's difficult to know for sure. I also have questions about how distracted she might be as her husband's
criminal appeals drag on.
Beth Allen is poised to make a political splash of her own, and she has potential. But she still needs more seasoning
and fewer distractions in her personal life. However, I get the feeling we will see more of Beth Allen in the future, regardless
of the outcome of this primary.
Glenn Willis (R)
As Glenn Willis notes on his own campaign website, "Eighty percent of success is showing up." Willis actually lists this as
his favorite quote... which is why it's mystifying that he chose not to accept Bill Mick's invitation to appear on-the-air
with the other Supervisor candidates. He had a golden opportunity to reach out to the audience of the top-rated morning
show in Brevard radio, and he turned it down.
With Glenn Willis's website, he turned down a similar opportunity to reach out to his voters and explain what
exactly makes him the most qualified to take over for Fred Galey. He goes into very little detail, just a vague blur of a
biography highlighting good experience in the private sector along with government that ultimately has little to do with
the job of Supervisor of Elections. On the issues, he promises to control spending, stick with paper ballots in the short
term, and look for technological solutions in the long-term, and again it's all very vauge and lacking in specifics.
And since he won't provide more detail, I can't give him my support in the Republican primary.
Frank Buckoski (I)
Listening to Frank Buckoski during his solo interview with Bill Mick, a theme quickly emerged. Frank Buckoski is an
independent, and he believes the Supervisor of Elections office should be a nonpartisan office. He went back to this
point again and again and again and again and again during the interview, repeating it like a mantra. Making a drinking
game out of the number of times he stresses his lack of party affiliation would produce very interesting results, similar
to John McCain starting a sentence with, "My friends," or Barack Obama mentioning "change" or "hope."
What Buckoski failed to do was to finish the argument, to explain why it matters that the Supervisor of Elections
race should be nonpartisan. He acknowledged the fine job that Fred Galey has done in the elections office, and quite clearly
stated that Galey had never allowed partisan interference to affect his handling of the job or his tallying of the votes. And
yet Buckoski kept raising the spectre of partisan interference as an imminent threat that must be stopped and headed-off by
electing an independent candidate to the office. He spent some time talking about voter education, about improving the removal
of dead people from the voter rolls in a speedier fashion, and about sticking with optical-scan paper ballots because they
work, but not much time at all. Whenever possible, he went back to banging the Independent Candidate drum as loudly as he
could without ever fully explaining why this is so important.
See, here's the thing. It's all well and good to declare that this office should be nonpartisan. It sure sounds nice,
right? We can't let the Republicans or the Democrats have sole control over who's counting the votes. It would be unseemly.
It would invite abuse. The election process must be protected by removing the parties from the process. But there's only
one problem. Making this race nonpartisan would simply remove the party LABELS from the process. It does nothing to remove
the parties themselves. The parties would still be there, and the Supervisor of Elections would still be a member of one of
those parties or would at least lean towards one or the other. For example, Buckoski himself admitted he once ran for
partisan office as a Republican, and it sure seems like that's the direction he still leans in politically. But without
that party label there for all to see, it will be more difficult for the voters to figure out which side that Supervisor
might want to favor in an election. With a known Republican, we would know to look out for fishy results that favor
Republican candidates. Same with a known Democrat. But with some mysterious black-box candidate, we wouldn't know where to
start looking for signs of election tampering, which would make such tampering easier to get away with.
But the worst part is that, by focusing so much on this non-starter of an issue, Buckoski stole time away from himself
in which he could've elaborated more on the other issues that he merely touched on briefly. Buckoski may very well be
head-and-shoulders the most qualified candidate in this race, but we have no way of knowing if he is or not because he
spent so little time discussing it.
If the two major party nominees in this race turn out to be blatant partisan hacks, Buckoski will get my vote in
November. But otherwise, he's going to have to do a much better job in the meantime explaining who he is and why he's the
best man for this job. Simply being outside the two major parties isn't enough. It it were enough, I would be
running for this office, and I can tell you right now I am in no way qualified. Buckoski still needs to tell us why
his is. Fortunately, he has time before November.
Frank Grieco, Jr. (D)
The only Democrat in the race, Frank Grieco, Jr. must have thought there was no short-term benefit when he turned down his chance to
appear on-the-air with Bill Mick alongside Frank Buckoski, who is an independent candidate by the way, just in case you
didn't know. Grieco has won the Democratic nomination by default and doesn't need to start campaigning yet, but this was
still his chance at some free air-time, a valuable commodity for a Democrat in a predominantly-Republican county. That D
next to Grieco's name puts him at an automatic disadvantage, and appearances on shows like Bill Mick Live are a great way
for any Democrat to chip away at that disadvantage. So, too, is having a good website, and sadly Grieco's website is
still heavily under construction and lacks even basic info on his stances or philosophy at this time.
But November is a long way off. Grieco still has time to introduce himself to the largest radio audience in Brevard
County... if he's smart enough to accept the next invitation when it comes between now and the general election. I strongly
sugggest he accepts it. Supervisor of Elections is an administrative position, and my number one question in such races is
this: can you do the job? Political philosophy still matters to me in these races, but not as much, as my previous votes
for Democratic Tax Collector Rod Northcutt have shown over the years. If Grieco thinks reaching out to Bill Mick's audience
is a waste of his time, he's making a huge mistake. After all, Bill did endorse a Democrat to replace Bob Allen in
the State House.
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Tax Collector candidates: as heard on Bill Mick Live
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Thursday, August 21st, 2008 at 9:45pm
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Several weeks ago, the primary candidates for the office of Tax Collector appeared on
Bill Mick Live on NewsTalk 1240/1350 WMMB. They're all running to
replace Rod Northcutt, who has served as Tax Collector since 1992 and decided to retire earlier this year. I saved the
podcasts of those interviews
and have listened to them on several occasions. I haven't made a final call who I'd like to see win in November, but I've
certainly decided which candidates I would prefer to see winning the Republican and Democratic primaries.
Lisa Cullen (R)
The position of Tax Collector is an administrative position, so experience goes a long way for me when I'm trying to decide
who to vote for in administrative races. Between the two Republican candidates, I have to support Lisa Cullen for that very
reason. Cullen worked in the Brevard County Tax Collector's office from 1987 to 1991 and again from 1992 to 2007, eventually
working her way up to a director's position. For the past year and a half she's worked for the Orange County Tax Collector's
office, and is now ready to come home to take over for Rod Northcutt. She clearly knows her way around the Brevard County
Tax Collector's office, and having the chance to work a similar position in another county gives her a more well-rounded
background of experience to draw from.
In her interview with Bill Mick, Cullen laid out several priorities for improving the way the office does its job. She
wants to make processing payments easier for the taxpayers, including lowering credit card fees, lowering the minimum
required amount for using a credit card, and speeding up the processing time for checks. She also plans to do away with
the silliest part of Rod Northcutt's term: requiring people to make checks payable to "Rod Northcutt, Tax Collector."
Cullen will shorten that to just "Tax Collector." She took several questions about the budget and staffing levels, and
Cullen made it clear that she doesn't plan to close any of the Tax Collector branch offices, saying that 8 offices are
needed for a 70-mile-long narrow county like Brevard. But she does plan to look at possibly lowering staffing levels, with
an eye toward cross-training existing employees and widening what the Tax Collector's office is capable of getting done.
The most contentious part of the interview came when a caller brought up
last year's unionization
of the Tax Collector employees. Cullen often disagreed with Rod Northcutt's handling of the union dispute and various
employee complaints, and even ended up joining the union herself to send a signal to Northcutt. The caller implied that
this was illegal due to Cullen's director position, but here's where the timeline breaks down for me. The unionization vote
didn't happen until August 2007. Cullen left the Brevard County Tax Collector's office in January 2007 according to her
website, before the unionization vote took place. Adding to my confusion,
Cullen avoided addressing whether or not her joining the union was illegal, but did say she signed a union card to get
Northcutt's attention. I guess this was prior to the unionization vote and prior to her leaving for Orange County. This
is something I would want to get clarification on before November. What I do know is that the union wants a raise for all
of the Tax Collector employees during an economic downturn and signing bonuses for all new hires regardless of the fact
that such bonuses aren't currently offered to any other county employees. So I'm a little troubled that Cullen says she
wants to build a bridge between the leadership and the union at the Tax Collector's office, since the union is basically
trying to elevate the Tax Collector employees above all of the other county employees with no concern for declining tax
revenues and the need to cut budgets.
But for right now, the Republican primary is coming up first on August 26th. And union questions aside, Lisa Cullen is
head-and-shoulders above Jackie Colon in terms of qualification for the office. She knows the office, she knows the job,
she knows the issues, and I like what she plans to do. It's too bad I'm a Libertarian and can't vote in this primary, but
I sure hope Cullen wins this one.
Jackie Colon (R)
I used to like Jackie Colon. I really did. I supported her and voted for her when she represented me on the Palm Bay City
Council years ago. When she ran for the County Commission as a Democrat, she ran as a conservative with views not all that
different from her Republican opponent but with a far more civil tone. I voted for her, and on a couple of occasions where
I had the chance to speak with her directly I teased her that she had joined the wrong party. Eventually she swung herself
around to the Republican party... and strangely, that's when the shine really started to come off of Jackie Colon. I
really, truly think she was more of a conservative when she was a Democrat.
The longer Colon has remained on the County Commission, the looser she's gotten about spending our money, especially
with land-buying votes for the Environmentally Endangered Lands program, EELS. She's become a very well-connected political
animal in Viera and seems to have gotten dangerously accustomed to holding the reigns of power. She seems to have reached
the point where she feels that such power simply belongs to her and that she shouldn't be held accountable for what she does
with that power.
I guess that's why Colon turned down her invitation to appear on WMMB alongside Lisa Cullen, waiting until late the
night before to do so. She knew she would face criticism from Cullen and tough questions from Bill, and, well, someone of
her formidable stature is simply above such things, of course. So she backed out. But that didn't stop her supporters
from calling in on her behalf, including one particularly fishy woman who called in from Orlando. Y'know, Orlando. Where
WMMB's signal can't be heard at all. Orlando. Over in Orange County, where they can't vote for Brevard County's Tax
Collector. Why would someone from Orlando call in to a Melbourne radio station to support a candidate from outside of her
area who she can't even vote for? Very strange.
And yet all of this could be forgivable for me if Colon could at least demonstrate that she is qualified for this job.
Tax Collector is an administrative position, and I'm willing to overlook some aspects of your political philosophy and your
personality if you can at least demonstrate that you have the ability to run that office effectively. I've looked over
Jackie Colon's resume on her campaign website, and I don't see anything there that
even remotely resembles leading a large governmental agency responsible for serving half-a-million citizens. She's gotten
involved with a lot of charitable agencies, she's held a few middle-management positions at several companies, and she's
been elected to legislative positions at two different levels of government. That's nothing to sneeze at, but it's also
completely unrelated to the task of running the Tax Collector's office. She is simply not qualified for this position.
I've also never heard a good explanation as to why she is specifically running for this office as opposed to running for
something else. This makes me believe she is simply running for Tax Collector so that she can run for something,
anything, to stay in some political office of some sort until she's ready to make the next leap. Congresswoman
Jackie Colon, anyone? It makes sense... the Republican Party probably made it clear to Colon that Bill Posey would be Dave
Weldon's successor, so Colon is likely biding her time, waiting for Posey to retire so she can step in and take his place.
Serving as Tax Collector in the meantime will keep her in office and politically connected, boosting her chances at
becoming the front-runner to replace Posey later. This is not a good reason to hand Jackie Colon a government office
to run. An administrative position like this needs someone who can do the job, not someone who just views it as the next
rung on the climb to more political power.
Carie Exline (D)
The Democrats bring two excellent candidates to the Tax Collector's race, but I think Carie Exline sounded stronger based
on the interview with Bill Mick. Exline has been a certified public accountant for 25 years, most recently working as
an auditor for Brevard County, with similar past positions in Monroe County and in the city of Orlando. She's had the
opportunity to audit Rod Northcutt's budget and complimented him on the air for holding the line on his budget, though she
also promised to continue looking for other ways to save money. One thing she does not want to do is to close any of the
Tax Collector's branch offices. But she pointed out that the state of Florida is getting ready to add to the Tax
Collector's responsibility by shifting more driver's license services to be handled by them, which is going to make the
existing branch offices busier.
In response to the union question, Exline disagrees with the union's calls for signing bonuses that no other county
employees get, and isn't wild about them getting 3% raises in the current economic downturn either if no other county
employees will be getting raises either. She thinks the dispute with the union is going to have to go to an arbitrator
before it can be resolved. Exline did state that she thinks county employees aren't paid enough compared to their
market value, though she criticized the union for only focusing on getting raises for the Tax Collector employees at the
expense of the other county employees. But she has no problem with the union itself and says that if government employees
want to unionize, they should be able to.
Laura Dils (D)
Laura Dils touted her lack of political experience as a benefit, and stressed her years of private-sector business
experience in business administration, marketing and computers, including supervising an office with over 1,000 people
before. She's a political outsider and wants people to know it, and while that can be a good thing, it also puts her at a
disadvantage at knowing the ins-and-outs of how county government works.
In keeping with her intent to run the office more like a business, Dils stated she already has in mind several ways to
save money in the Tax Collector's budget. Her main idea is to share office space with other county agencies in order to cut
down on all of the county's expenses, a prudent idea. She also wants to close down one or two branch offices and wants to
strongly encourage people to use the Tax Collector's website more. I like the idea of driving traffic to the website, but
there are a lot of people who still aren't comfortable with using the web or who don't even have reliable internet access
at all because they can't afford it. Imagine how it would be for someone with a low income who lives near one of the Tax
Collector's branch offices, and that office gets closed. They'd have two choices: shell out money for internet access, or
spend more money on gas to drive to another office that's further away. Neither one is a good option. Add in the fact that
the Tax Collector's office may soon be handling more driver's license duties, and I'm not sure that closing down any of the
branch offices is the best idea right now.
On the union dispute, Dils stated that she wants to reach an agreement with the union employees so that we can stop
wasting so much money on the related legal expenses. But she also pointed out that employee salaries are ultimately
decided by the County Commission anyway, so if the Commissioners say no raises, there won't be any raises. Dils also took
an indirect shot at Lisa Cullen for signing the union card, which she said is illegal for a director to do. As I said
above, I want to learn more about that, and there's time to do so before November, especially if it comes down to Dils
versus Cullen.
I do like the approach and the mindset that Dils would bring to the Tax Collector's office, even if I disagree with some
of the specifics of her policies. She certainly has enough related experience to overcome her lack of direct experience
working in government, and I think Laura Dils would do a fine job. But I think Carie Exline would have a smoother time
running this office thanks to her familiarity with the operation of county government, so Exline is my preferred Democrat
for winning the primary. Regardless of who wins, I would certainly give either of the Democrats a solid look compared to
Lisa Cullen, and I would absolutely prefer either Democrat over Jackie Colon.
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Thursday, August 21st, 2008 at 3:15pm
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For the first time in days, it actually looks kinda sunny outside.
I live in Palm Bay, of course, so I've been dealing with street flooding, work closures, and lots of disruption to my
sleep cycle for the past couple of days. Not very conducive to writing coherently about news, issues or political
candidates.
Now that Fay is finally making her way back inland to our north and the floodwaters are starting to recede, I'm ready to
move on. We've got a primary election in less than 5 days, and I'm way behind on my candidate articles. Time to catch up.
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Fay appears to be edging more eastward
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Monday, August 18th, 2008 at 9:45am
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Tropical
Storm Fay made her turn yesterday and is crossing Cuba, but she took a slightly sharper turn than expected and is continuing to
curve more to the right. The computer models
have shifted considerably further east as well. The odds of a direct landfall in Brevard are nil at this point, but it's
looking more and more likely that Fay will make landfall somewhere on the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, move
north-by-northeast across the state and cross through Brevard before exiting into the Atlantic. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty in the forecast as of this morning. There's even a slight possibility that Fay, being so disorganized after
crossing the mountains of Cuba, might end up reorganizing around a new center of circulation, possibly further east and
closer to the strongest part of the storm right now. If that happens, we'll be even more under the gun.
But there is good news. I'm hearing lots of people comparing Fay to
Charley in '04, and they're worried about a last-minute
burst of strengthening like what Charley did. However, Charley crossed Cuba much further to the west than Fay is, giving
Charley far more time over that hot Gulf water. Fay won't have nearly as much time to recover from the mountains of Cuba
before striking Florida. She'll make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, and I'll be surprised if she reaches Cat-2. A
better comparison for Fay would be Hurricane Irene in
1999, which struck the southern tip of Florida as a Cat-1 but managed to hold herself together as she travelled up the
coast, even bringing hurricane-force winds to Brevard. The worst we can expect from Fay is a scenario similar to Irene.
Look for the weather to start getting bad Monday afternoon and evening, then getting steadily worse through Tuesday and
reaching it's worst point early Wednesday morning between midnight and sunrise. If Charley and Irene are any indication, I
don't think any evacuations would be ordered for Brevard at this point, because riding out the storm in a mobile home is
still safer than trying to drive somewhere else in a car at the height of the bad weather. The causeways never closed for
Charley either, but they could be closed for Fay if the winds get high enough. Keep watching the news anyway, just in case.
Oh, and of course, keep reading the excellent tropical weather blog by
Dr. Jeff Masters. Dude is good.
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Tropical Storm Fay pulls a fast one
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Saturday, August 16th, 2008 at 11:15am
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...or the tropical wave
could organize itself around a center far further south than anyone was expecting, setting Fay up for a track that reaches
much further west before turning and spending much more time over Hispaniola and Cuba in the meantime.
Me and my "hunch" are going to have a little chat today.
Tropical Storm Fa |
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